Brazil’s GDP growth forecast raised by IMF

The International Monetary Fund upgraded its outlook for Brazil’s economy, projecting GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026 – up from 1.9% – and 2.2% in 2027, up from 2.0%. These estimates are more optimistic than the forecasts of the Finance Ministry (2.3% for 2026), the Central Bank (2.0%) and the market’s Focus poll (1.99% for 2026, 1.69% for 2027). The IMF also lifted its growth expectations for Latin America and the Caribbean to 2.4% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, while trimming the global growth forecast for 2026 to 3% amid heightened geopolitical risks, especially the war in the Middle East, and uncertainties around artificial‑intelligence‑driven productivity. The Fund highlighted that Brazil’s strong export position in commodities, oil and agricultural products helps it benefit from higher world prices, but it also warned that persistently high energy costs – about 25% above pre‑conflict levels – keep freight and fertilizer prices elevated, pressuring the agribusiness sector. The IMF expects the expansion to be driven more by export gains than by domestic demand and notes a likely slowdown in 2027.