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[BUSINESS] · Iraq, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, Bahrain · 3 sources

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Part of situation: Middle East economic impact of Iran conflict (6 clusters)

IMF predicts Middle East economic contraction in 2026

IMF Middle East economy Strait of Hormuz global growth forecast oil supply disruption

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the Middle East and Central Asia region will face an economic contraction of 0.3% in 2026, followed by a significant recovery of 6.3% in 2027. This forecast is heavily influenced by the potential for prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Gulf oil producers are expected to be the most impacted. Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar are projected to see double-digit contractions in 2026, with a subsequent double-digit expansion in 2027 as logistics and exports normalize. Iraq is expected to be among the hardest hit, with a projected 16% contraction in real GDP for 2026 due to its heavy reliance on crude oil exports.

Globally, the IMF has maintained its 2026 growth forecast at 3.1%. While the closure of the Strait of Hormuz posed a major risk, the IMF notes that supply-side adjustments—such as alternative shipping routes and increased production in other regions—limited the potential negative impact on global growth to approximately 0.4 percentage points.

Entities

International Monetary Fund · Iraq · Middle East · Saudi Arabia · Strait of Hormuz

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

  • [DISPUTED] The IMF predicts the Middle East and Central Asia region will experience a 0.3% economic contraction in 2026. cn.dailyeconomic.com
  • [○ 1 SOURCE] Supply-side adjustments limited the negative impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure on global growth to 0.4 percentage points. www.sabah.com.tr
  • [○ 1 SOURCE] The IMF has kept its global growth forecast for 2026 steady at 3.1%. www.sabah.com.tr
  • [○ 1 SOURCE] The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could have reduced global economic growth by 0.9 percentage points in 2026 if supply adjustments had not occurred. www.sabah.com.tr
  • [○ 1 SOURCE] Iraq's real GDP is expected to contract by 16% in 2026. cn.dailyeconomic.com
  • [○ 1 SOURCE] The Middle East and Central Asia region is projected to grow by 6.3% in 2027. cn.dailyeconomic.com

Sources

IMF预测中东经济2026年将萎缩0.3% – 每日经济 [cn.dailyeconomic.com]
IMF ve Dünya Bankası toplantılarından gelişmekte olan ülkelere çözüm çıkmadı - Dünya Gazetesi [www.dunya.com]
Küresel büyüme pamuk ipliğine bağlı - NURULLAH GÜR [www.sabah.com.tr]