IMF projects Macau economy to slow to 3.3% growth in 2026

The International Monetary Fund’s annual Article IV mission report says Macau’s real GDP growth will decelerate to 3.3 % in 2026, down from a 4.7 % rise in 2025. The slowdown is attributed to weaker casino revenues and the persistence of high interest rates. The IMF had previously forecast 3.1 % growth for 2026.

Inflation is expected to rise gradually, reaching around 2.2 % in the medium term after a low 0.33 % in 2025. The report notes that investment from the six casino concessionaires into non‑gaming sectors could partially offset the slowdown. While the economy remains resilient, it stays heavily dependent on the gaming sector and tourism from mainland China, and real GDP remains below pre‑pandemic levels.