IMF: AI could increase labor productivity by 3.8 per cent

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) working paper suggests that artificial intelligence could increase aggregate labor productivity by as much as 3.8 per cent over the long term. The study, titled ‘Artificial Intelligence and Aggregate Labor Productivity: Evidence from Patent Data’, analyzed patent and employment data from Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries between 2000 and 2017.

Research indicates that AI-related innovation has already yielded measurable gains. Between 2000 and 2017, AI patent activity increased output per worker by an estimated 0.8 per cent to 1.2 per cent. During this period, the issuance of AI-related patents more than tripled, with OECD countries accounting for approximately 89 per cent of all such patents issued globally.

The report notes that future productivity gains depend on the continued development and widespread adoption of AI across various economic sectors. However, these benefits are expected to be distributed unevenly. Countries with a higher proportion of professional and managerial employees may see greater productivity increases, suggesting that AI provides more economic value when supporting skilled workers rather than simply replacing them.