India and Bangladesh face diplomatic shifts amid regime change and water treaty expiration

India and Bangladesh are entering a period of strategic recalibration following the August 2024 regime change in Bangladesh and the departure of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. While political tensions have risen due to the interim government's diplomatic shifts and the presence of Hasina in India, deep economic and geographic interdependencies remain. Bangladesh relies heavily on Indian raw materials for its garment sector and depends on cross-border electricity and fuel pipelines.

A major upcoming diplomatic test is the expiration of the 1996 Ganga Water Sharing Treaty in December 2026. The 30-year-old pact governs the distribution of water from the Farakka Barrage during the dry season. India has indicated that any discussions regarding the treaty's renewal will be conducted through existing bilateral mechanisms, such as the Joint Rivers Commission, which manages the 54 rivers shared by the two nations.