India fertility rate falls below replacement level

India's total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen below the replacement level of 2.1, marking a significant demographic shift for the world's most populous nation. Reports from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-6) and the Sample Registration System (SRS) indicate that the TFR has reached approximately 1.9 to 2.0, signaling a potential future of population decline and an aging society.

The decline is driven by several factors, including increased access to education and contraception—particularly for women—and the rising economic costs associated with raising and educating children. Additionally, a significant decrease in infant mortality rates has contributed to the trend, as higher survival rates reduce the perceived need for larger families.

There is a stark geographic and economic divide in these trends. While 28 states and Union Territories are below the replacement level, only seven regions, including Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, remain at or above it. Urban areas show a much lower TFR of 1.6 compared to 2.1 in rural areas. Regional disparities are extreme, with Bihar recording some of the highest fertility rates while areas like the Andaman and Nicobar Islands report the lowest.