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ISRO forecasts high-intensity cyclones for North Indian Ocean
ISRO scientists have issued a forecast indicating that approximately three tropical cyclones could develop in the North Indian Ocean between October and December 2026. This period follows the expected withdrawal of the southwest monsoon, which is projected to begin in northwestern India around September 19.
Data from ISRO’s Space Applications Centre suggests that the cumulative destructive energy of these potential storms could be 83% higher than the 44-year historical average for the October–December period. While the number of cyclones aligns with historical norms, their projected intensity is significantly elevated.
If these systems develop in the Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal, they could bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to various coastal regions. Specifically, Gujarat and Maharashtra may face heavy rain along the western coast. Conversely, the rainfall could serve as a benefit for states like Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and parts of Andhra Pradesh, potentially replenishing reservoirs currently facing water shortages due to a failed monsoon.
Entities
Arabian Sea · Aris Kiriakou · Bay of Bengal · Gujarat · ISRO · India Meteorological Department · Indian Ocean · Indian Racing Festival 2026 · Karim Motor Speedway · Karnataka · Luvive Sambula · Maharashtra
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 2 SOURCES] Heavy rainfall is possible along the coasts of Gujarat and Maharashtra due to the influence of these cyclones. kannada.asianetnews.com · connectgujarat.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The cyclones may bring heavy rainfall to Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and parts of Andhra Pradesh, potentially replenishing reservoirs. kannada.asianetnews.com
- [● 3 SOURCES] Three strong cyclones are expected to form in the northern Indian Ocean between October and December. kannada.asianetnews.com · connectgujarat.com · pragativadi.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The southwest monsoon is expected to begin its withdrawal from northwestern India around September 19. pragativadi.com
- [● 2 SOURCES] The cumulative energy of the potential cyclones is estimated to be 83% higher than the 44-year historical average. connectgujarat.com · pragativadi.com