India's Gold Duty Rise Boosts Dubai Jewellery Sales as Domestic Retail Volumes Fall

India increased its customs duty on gold from 6 % to 15 % last week. The higher levy prompted Indian residents, tourists and NRIs to shift jewellery purchases to Dubai, where dealers reported a 20‑30 % jump in enquiries and sales, especially for bridal, lightweight and 22‑carat pieces. Dubai’s competitive pricing, purity guarantees and transparent costs continue to attract Indian buyers despite local VAT.

In India, the organised gold jewellery sector expects revenue growth of 20‑25 % in FY‑27, driven by elevated gold prices and higher realisations. However, analysts forecast a 13‑15 % decline in sales volume to 620‑640 tonnes, the weakest level in a decade, as the duty hike and price increases curb demand. Retailers anticipate tighter inventory cycles and higher borrowing, but credit profiles should remain stable.

Together, the duty increase is reshaping buying behaviour: boosting cross‑border sales in the UAE while forcing India’s domestic market to adapt to lower volumes but higher earnings per gram.