India's 2026 Monsoon Forecast Weakens, Raising Crop and Food‑Price Risks

Weather firm Skymet predicts the 2026 south‑west monsoon in India could fall well below the long‑period average, with rainfall at only 84‑85% of LPA and June receiving about 42% less rain than normal. The agency expects some relief in July but warns of a possible strong monsoon break in August due to El Niño.

Agricultural analysts note that while kharif sowing has not dropped sharply, reduced rains could cut sugarcane output to around 390 million tonnes and pressure rabi crops such as wheat and chickpeas. The shortfall may push food inflation higher, especially for pulses and oilseeds, and could affect water reservoirs, hydro‑electric generation and rural livelihoods. Economic commentary links a weak monsoon to slower GDP growth, higher input costs for farmers, and added strain on banking and consumer‑goods sectors.