India's Balance of Payments Outlook Improves Amid RBI Support and Oil Price Pressures

Goldman Sachs reports that India posted a $7.2 billion balance of payments surplus in the first quarter of calendar year 2026, driven by strong remittances, robust services exports and lower oil imports. Incorporating lower oil and gold import assumptions, the brokerage cut its current‑account deficit forecast to about 1.3 % of GDP for CY26 and 1.7 % for FY27, down from earlier estimates of 2.0 % and 2.1 %. The firm expects the Reserve Bank of India’s measures – such as concessional forex‑swap rates and tax exemptions for foreign investors – to attract roughly $60 billion of additional inflows, easing depreciation pressure on the rupee, though significant appreciation is unlikely.

Other analysts project a widening of India's current‑account deficit to roughly 2.2 % of GDP in FY27, citing sustained high global crude‑oil prices that keep the import bill elevated. They note that strong services‑export performance, especially in IT and business services, together with steady remittance inflows, should partially offset the oil‑driven pressure. India’s sizable foreign‑exchange reserves are expected to provide a buffer against external shocks.

The differing forecasts highlight uncertainty around oil‑price developments and the extent to which RBI policies will sustain capital inflows and support the external sector.