India's economy to withstand $100‑a‑barrel oil while households feel price shock

World Bank executive director Neelkanth Mishra said that India’s growth trajectory is strong enough to absorb a crude price of $100 per barrel, with the impact on the GDP growth rate limited to about 2 %. He pointed to robust domestic demand, accelerating credit growth, rising car sales, construction activity and the strength of the Indian refining sector as buffers that have helped the economy grow 7.1 % in FY 2025 and could push growth above 8 % in FY 2026 despite higher fuel costs.

Economist Manoj Sharma warned that the surge in global oil prices – from roughly $67‑68 a barrel before the West‑Asia conflict to $100‑plus for Brent and $120‑130 on the spot market – will tighten household budgets. About 60 % of India’s crude imports arrive via the Strait of Hormuz, making the country vulnerable to supply disruptions. While the government has tried to cushion consumers, Sharma noted the limits of such measures and stressed the need for a longer‑term shift to renewable energy, which now supplies roughly one‑third of India’s total energy output but will take time to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels.