India's El Niño forecast warns of intensified conditions and rising food‑price pressures

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) says the El Niño that began earlier this month will likely intensify by September, with moderate conditions expected in July‑August. Director General Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra noted that the phenomenon could affect monsoon rains and, consequently, agriculture across the country. The federal government has begun precautionary steps for states such as Gujarat, Rajasthan, Odisha and central regions that rely on limited irrigation, focusing on water‑management, soil‑moisture conservation and alternative cropping.

Economists caution that El Niño may lift food prices for oilseeds, pulses and cotton, potentially nudging inflation higher. A Bank of Baroda research note cited an 80 % likelihood of El Niño through June‑August and projected consumer‑price inflation to settle in a 5.2 %‑5.5 % range in FY27, with food inflation already at 4.8 % and overall CPI at 3.9 % in May 2026. Analysts warned that higher fuel and freight costs, combined with weather‑related risks, could further feed inflation in the near term.