India's food inflation spikes to 5.3% in June amid soaring tomato prices

India's consumer food price index rose to 5.32% in June, the highest level in 17 months, driven by a 32% jump in tomato prices and a 50% surge in ginger. While potatoes and peas fell, the overall basket saw pressure from vegetables and pulses. Economists warn that El Niño conditions and a below‑normal monsoon could keep food prices elevated, with the India Meteorological Department forecasting moderate to strong El Niño during the southwest monsoon.

In the United States, food inflation has slowed to about 3% year‑on‑year, but analysts caution that geopolitical tensions—such as the Strait of Hormuz blockade that lifted fertilizer prices—and a predicted “super El Niño” could reverse the trend and push supermarket bills higher.

Eurozone food inflation has also dipped to around 1.6% but is expected to climb toward 3% by 2027, according to Oxford Economics. The rise is linked to higher energy and fertilizer costs from the Iran‑related oil shock, heat‑wave damage to crops, and lingering fertilizer price spikes, which may add up to one percentage point to inflation next year.