Gold prices tumble amid US‑Iran deal doubts and India duty‑hike import slump

Global gold futures fell sharply on June 19, with the August contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange sliding more than 2 % to Rs 1,45,917 per 10 g, and U.S. COMEX futures down about 2 % to $4,150 per ounce. Traders cited uncertainty over the implementation of a U.S.–Iran peace agreement, a postponed high‑level meeting in Switzerland, and a stronger U.S. dollar backed by the Federal Reserve’s unchanged but still hawkish stance, which kept interest‑rate expectations high.

In India, the government's customs‑duty increase on gold and silver from 6 % to 15 % in mid‑May triggered a dramatic collapse in imports. Monthly shipments fell by more than 65 % to roughly 25‑30 metric tonnes, down from 75‑100 t previously. The drop coincided with softened domestic demand, narrower discounts to official prices, and record outflows from gold ETFs. Prices for 24‑carat gold slipped by about Rs 3,650 per 10 g to around Rs 1,45,860 in major cities, while silver fell by roughly Rs 10,000 per kilogram.

Analysts across markets linked the price weakness to the combined effect of tighter monetary policy expectations, heightened geopolitical uncertainty, and the Indian duty hike that curbed both import volumes and retail buying. The outlook remains volatile as investors watch forthcoming Fed statements and any progress on the U.S.–Iran arrangement.