India's June consumer inflation may surpass RBI's 4% target, poll shows

A Reuters poll of 37 economists forecasts that India's consumer price index (CPI) rose to about 4.3% in June, up from 3.93% in May. This would breach the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) medium‑term inflation target of 4% for the first time in 16 months and represent the highest reading since the CPI series was revised in January.

The increase is attributed to higher food and fuel prices, the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict that could lift oil costs, and a weak monsoon that may be further affected by an El Niño weather pattern. The poll estimates the CPI could range between 3.65% and 5.50% when the data are released on July 13.

The RBI kept its key repo rate at 5.25% in its latest meeting, though many economists expected at least one rate hike before year‑end. Wholesale price inflation eased only marginally to 9.15% in June, and core inflation (excluding food and fuel) was expected at roughly 3.95%.

The outlook suggests continued pressure on retail prices, with potential implications for monetary policy and household costs across India.