India's Monsoon Forecast Below Normal as IMD Warns of Slower Rainfall

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on 13 June that the monsoon this year is likely to deliver below‑normal rainfall across the country, estimating about a 98 % chance of reduced precipitation. The monsoon has already reached the southern peninsular region, the northeastern states and parts of eastern India, but its advance is expected to slow.

A western disturbance is currently affecting north‑west India, bringing rain and thunderstorms to Punjab, Haryana, Delhi‑NCR and Himalayan areas, with wind speeds of 40‑50 km/h. The IMD has issued a yellow alert for Delhi‑NCR and orange alerts for parts of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Temperatures in northern India have fallen 6‑8 °C recently, with a modest rise of 4‑6 °C anticipated in the coming days. The department noted that the El Niño phenomenon is active and likely to influence the entire monsoon season.

The IMD expects the monsoon to reach Bihar, Odisha, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh within the next two to three days, after which its progression may remain slow.