India's RBI likely to keep repo rate steady in June as SBI forecasts 6.6% GDP growth for FY27

A State Bank of India (SBI) research report says the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to hold the repo rate unchanged at its June monetary policy committee meeting, citing limited need for further tightening. The report forecasts India's GDP growth at 6.6% for fiscal year 2026‑27, after an estimated 7.5% rise in 2025‑26 and a Q4 2025‑26 growth of about 7.2%.

Consumer‑price inflation is projected to stay above 5% for the next three quarters, with the current quarter's CPI expected between 4.0% and 4.1%. The RBI may use tools such as “Operation Twist” to manage price pressures. Despite a weakening rupee, foreign‑exchange reserves remain sufficient to curb excessive volatility. The report also warns that geopolitical uncertainties could keep oil‑price risk premiums high, potentially pushing crude oil above $90 per barrel, and suggests a Rs 5‑per‑litre cut in fuel excise duties to offset higher domestic fuel costs.