India's Southwest Monsoon Faces Significant Rainfall Deficit

India's India Meteorological Department (IMD) warned that the 2024 southwest monsoon is delivering below‑normal rainfall across the country. Scientists said the active El Niño is expected to persist throughout the season and the long‑range forecast puts total rainfall at about 98 % of normal. Between June 4 and June 14 the nation recorded only 34.3 mm of rain versus the long‑term average of 47.7 mm, a 28 % deficit that leaves large parts of central, eastern and peninsular India dry.

A western disturbance has brought rain and thunderstorms to north‑west India, prompting an orange alert for Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh and a yellow alert for Delhi‑NCR, Punjab and Haryana. Temperatures in north India have fallen 6‑8 °C, though a modest rise is expected in the coming days. The IMD noted that the monsoon has progressed slowly beyond the southern peninsula and that the upper‑level easterly jet, currently weakened, could strengthen after June 20, allowing rain‑bearing systems over the Bay of Bengal to move inland and revive rainfall.

IMD scientists quoted: “We expect El Niño will be active throughout the monsoon season,” and “The western disturbance is over north Haryana and the adjoining area, so we expect rainfall and thunderstorm activity to continue.”