Central Bank of Turkey cuts policy rate to 36%

Central Bank of Turkey interest rate cut monetary policy inflation TCMB

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) has reduced its policy interest rate by 100 basis points, lowering it from 37% to 36%. This marks the first rate cut in nine months, following a period of restrictive monetary policy maintained since early 2026.

The Monetary Policy Committee noted that recent data and leading indicators suggest a decline in underlying inflation, alongside weakening domestic demand. However, the bank emphasized that high energy prices driven by geopolitical tensions remain a significant upward risk to inflation. Future decisions regarding the magnitude and timing of further cuts will be determined on a meeting-by-meeting basis, focusing on the inflation outlook.

International financial institutions have provided varying forecasts following the decision. ING predicted a further 100 basis point cut in December and estimated the USD/TRY exchange rate at 51.50 by the end of 2026. Barclays suggested that while a larger cut in December is possible, the primary scenario remains 100 basis point increments. Meanwhile, HSBC expects the policy rate to reach 35% by the end of 2026 and 21% by the end of 2027.

Entities

Bank of England · Barclays · Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey · Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye · HSBC · ING · Mehmet Şimşek · Turkey · Türkiye · United Kingdom

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

[● 3 SOURCES] Annual inflation in Turkey fell to 29.7% in September. novini247.com · fakti.bg · www.leconomistemaghrebin.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] HSBC expects the policy rate to be 21% by the end of 2027. www.egemengazetesi.com
[● 4 SOURCES] The overnight borrowing rate was reduced from 35.5% to 34.5%. www.ekonomist.com.tr · novini247.com · fakti.bg · www.leconomistemaghrebin.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] The 12-month inflation expectation among households fell to 43.75%. gazeteyenisoz.com
[● 12 SOURCES] The Central Bank of Turkey reduced the policy interest rate from 37% to 36%. gazeteyenisoz.com · www.yenikiroba.com · www.egemengazetesi.com · www.ekonomist.com.tr · www.it-boltwise.de · +7 more
[● 4 SOURCES] The overnight lending rate was reduced from 40% to 39%. www.ekonomist.com.tr · novini247.com · fakti.bg · www.leconomistemaghrebin.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] ING predicts the USD/TRY exchange rate will reach 51.50 by the end of 2026. www.ortadogugazetesi.com
[● 4 SOURCES] Geopolitical tensions and high energy prices pose an upward risk to inflation. www.ekonomist.com.tr · novini247.com · fakti.bg · www.leconomistemaghrebin.com