Inflationary pressures drive interest rate hike expectations in Europe

Inflationary pressures are driving expectations for interest rate hikes in Europe and impacting global currency markets. In the eurozone, consumer inflation rose to 3.3 percent, prompting market speculation that the European Central Bank may increase the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50 percent during its September meeting.

In Poland, annual inflation increased from 3.0 percent to 3.4 percent between July and August, accompanied by GDP growth of 3.8 percent. While the National Bank of Poland's Monetary Policy Council is expected to maintain current rates, bond yields in Poland have risen by 95 basis points since the start of the year.

In the United States, Donald Trump has called for lower interest rates to improve American competitiveness. Meanwhile, analysts at MUFG suggest the US dollar may face depreciation against the Polish złoty, forecasting a rate of 3.567 PLN per USD by the first quarter of 2027.