Insubric economy shows resilience despite structural risks

A joint economic analysis by the Ticino Statistical Office (Ustat) and several Italian Chambers of Commerce reveals a resilient but fragile economic landscape for the Insubric region spanning the Swiss-Italian border.

In 2025, Switzerland saw a real GDP growth of 1.5%, while Ticino recorded 1.6%. This growth was largely driven by the pharmaceutical sector and an acceleration of exports to the United States in anticipation of potential US tariffs. However, this momentum slowed significantly in the latter half of 2025, with Ticino's exports declining by 9.8% in the second quarter and continuing to drop by 9.2% in early 2026.

Italian provinces within the region showed varied responses to trade shocks. Varese experienced a 21.7% surge in exports, fueled by the aerospace and machinery sectors. In contrast, the Lake Como area saw mixed results, with Lecco growing by 7.1% while Como declined by 4.5%.

A critical structural challenge identified is the labor market. Despite a 7.6% unemployment rate in Ticino, 21.2% of businesses reported difficulties finding qualified personnel, a trend linked to demographic aging and skill mismatches.