Intensifying El Niño threatens trillions in economic loss and disrupts global shipping

An unusually early and powerful El Niño has formed in the equatorial Pacific, with forecasters warning it could become a “Super” or “Godzilla” event. Historical analogues suggest the storm could generate more than $10 trillion in global economic damage by intensifying heatwaves, floods, droughts and tropical diseases, sharply reducing food production and straining supply chains.

The World Economic Forum cautions that the climate pattern poses a systemic shock to markets, especially for commodity and freight sectors. Shipping analysts expect heightened volatility in Asian coal imports, with coal‑driven power demand in India already at record levels, and anticipate significant shifts in dry‑bulk freight as reduced rainfall cuts Australian wheat output by up to 19 % and hampers rice supplies. The combined climate and market pressures could reverberate through global commodity prices and freight rates through mid‑2026 and beyond.