International study predicts 42% cut in global livestock by 2050

A new modelling study published in *Nature* and led by researchers from Cornell University, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) compares two possible pathways for the world’s food system up to 2050. The “business‑as‑usual” scenario continues current trends, while the transformation scenario follows the recommendations of the EAT‑Lancet Commission’s “Planetary Health Diet”, featuring more fruits, vegetables, nuts and legumes and far less ruminant meat.

The analysis forecasts that the transformation could reduce the global ruminant livestock population by about 42 % – roughly 400 million fewer animals – and cut agricultural land use by 6‑9 %. Net CO₂ emissions from land‑use change could fall by up to 76 %, with methane and nitrous‑oxide emissions dropping by around one‑third. Overall agricultural production would be about 17 % lower than under business‑as‑usual, while the economic value of plant‑based crops could rise by roughly 23 %.

Health benefits are also projected: the diet could avert up to 15 million premature adult deaths each year. The authors stress that such a shift would require proactive agricultural and nutrition policies to be socially and economically feasible.