Greece economic outlook: IOBE forecasts 1.8% growth and rising inflation

The Institute for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE) has released its quarterly report regarding the Greek economy, maintaining a GDP growth forecast of 1.8% for 2026. However, the institute has slightly revised its 2027 growth projection downward to 1.9% from a previous estimate of 2.0%.

Inflationary pressures are expected to rise, with the harmonized consumer price index projected to reach 4% in 2026, driven largely by energy costs and supply chain disruptions stemming from conflicts in the Middle East. Inflation is expected to decelerate to approximately 3% in 2027. Unemployment is forecasted to stand at 8.6% in 2026 and drop to 7.8% in 2027.

IOBE analysts noted that while the economy shows stability, significant challenges remain, including high financing costs and an investment gap following the completion of the Recovery and Resilience Facility. Real wages have seen minimal growth, increasing only 0.68% between 2021 and 2025 due to high inflation. Additionally, the report highlights that rising costs in housing, tourism, and transport continue to impact consumer purchasing power.