IonQ targets 2028 for quantum computer capable of cracking Bitcoin encryption

IonQ has released a roadmap indicating that a fault-tolerant quantum computer with approximately 20,000 physical qubits could potentially crack the secp256k1 elliptic-curve cryptography used by Bitcoin. According to the company’s resource estimates, a system utilizing 19,397 physical qubits could solve the elliptic-curve discrete logarithm problem in roughly 25.7 days.

IonQ plans to reach a 10,000-physical-qubit system in 2027, with the 20,000-qubit milestone targeted for 2028. The company is also developing the IonQ Superion 256, a sixth-generation platform created in collaboration with SkyWater. Designed for mass production, this platform is compatible with standard data center cooling systems and is expected to be delivered to customers in 2027.

While the research provides a detailed end-to-end estimate of the error-correction operations required for such a feat, IonQ’s current technology stands at 256 qubits. The company notes that scaling to the required capacity may face unforeseen technical obstacles.