Iran economic growth declines amid high interbank rates and maritime pressure

Iran's economy experienced a contraction of 5.9% in the three months ending in August, according to a report by the Central Bank of Iran's research institute. The decline is largely attributed to a 27.4% shrinkage in the oil sector, driven by limitations on oil exports. This follows a period of significant volatility, with the oil sector previously contracting by 17.6% in the spring.

In the banking sector, interbank interest rates have remained stable at the policy corridor's ceiling of 24% for seven consecutive weeks. This high rate indicates that the cost of securing short-term liquidity remains elevated, reflecting persistent demand for resources or restricted liquidity supply.

Other economic indicators show mixed results: the services sector contracted by 3.7%, while the industry and mining sectors shrank by 8%. Conversely, the agricultural sector grew by 6%, aided by a 60% increase in rainfall. While the nominal value of retail and wholesale transactions rose by 102%, the number of transactions remained largely unchanged, and real estate transactions fell by 45%.

U.S. officials have attributed these economic pressures to maritime enforcement, with U.S. Central Command stating that forces have prevented the export of significant quantities of Iranian crude oil.