Iran faces rapid population aging and potential elderly poverty

Iran is experiencing a rapid demographic shift toward an aging population. While elderly citizens currently comprise approximately 10 to 12 percent of the population, experts predict this figure will rise to over 26 percent by 2051. This transition is driven by a declining birth rate—decreasing by roughly 7 percent annually—and an increase in life expectancy, which has risen from 50 to approximately 74 years over recent decades.

Officials warn that the speed of this aging process is significantly faster than that seen in countries like Japan or Italy. This rapid shift poses serious economic and social challenges, particularly if industrial and economic infrastructures are not strengthened to manage it. Currently, elderly populations occupy more than 60 percent of hospital beds, often due to chronic conditions such as diabetes, hypertension, and mental health issues.

There are growing concerns regarding “elderly poverty” due to economic instability. Many workers entering their senior years have spent their careers in the informal economy with low wages, job insecurity, and insufficient insurance coverage. This raises questions about the readiness of Iran’s pension and social security systems to support a large generation of elderly citizens who may lack stable income or retirement benefits.