Iran says Israel likely to restart war before October elections

Iranian security analysts say there is a growing consensus that Israel will restart hostilities with Iran before Israel’s scheduled October elections. The assessment points to the recent Israeli‑Lebanese agreement, which allows Israeli forces to remain in parts of southern Lebanon, as a key factor that shifts the military balance in Israel’s favour and weakens Hezbollah’s ability to deter Israeli action. Tehran views the agreement as giving Israel a strategic advantage that could enable a renewed campaign without the constraints that limited Israeli operations during the earlier conflict.

The analysis also links Israel’s possible escalation to domestic political pressures on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose re‑election prospects have weakened. A renewed war could be used to bolster his standing, but it also carries the risk of political fallout if the conflict worsens Israel’s strategic position. Iranian officials remain uncertain about the level of coordination, if any, with the United States, noting the involvement of U.S. officials in brokering the Lebanese deal.