Iran war drives oil price surge and dampens radical Islam influence

A war launched on 28 February against Iran caused the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off about 38% of global crude oil trade. Within days, Brent prices rose above $100 a barrel, raising transport costs and insurance premiums. The International Monetary Fund warned that the conflict could cut global growth to 2.5% and push inflation toward 6%, while the United Nations warned that up to 45 million people could face acute food insecurity as fertilizer and other commodity flows are disrupted.

The death of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei in February shifted the power balance in Tehran, with veteran members of the Revolutionary Guard taking control. This change, alongside reforms in Saudi Arabia under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, marks a broader regional move away from radical Islamist politics toward more nationalist, secular‑leaning regimes in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria.