Istanbul earthquake risk: Geologist outlines uncertain fault segment

Geology professor Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş examined the pending Marmara earthquake scenario for Istanbul, noting that the fault segment between the 1912‑2011‑2025 western events and the 1963‑1999 eastern events has not yet produced a large quake. He suggested that plate movement may be distributed across secondary faults such as Çınarcık, Orta Marmara and Tekirdağ basins, and that the segment could be relieving stress through creep and moderate tremors rather than being completely locked.

Bektaş warned that the risk remains high and that single‑model predictions like "the clock is ticking" are not supported by current science. He emphasized that only probabilistic assessments are possible and that a comprehensive review of all geological and geophysical data is needed to understand the hazard.

He reiterated that reliable timing of a major Istanbul quake cannot be given, stating, "İstanbul için saat doldu, büyük deprem kapıda" does not align with modern seismology, and that the public needs accurate information rather than fear‑based alarms.