Italian export faces chokepoint cost risk and aims for 700 billion‑euro target

A study by Promos Italia warns that 25‑35% of Italy’s export value – between €160 bn and €225 bn – relies on maritime chokepoints such as the Suez, Bab el‑Mandeb, Hormuz, Malacca, Panama and the Danish straits. If fees, restrictions or delays were imposed, the cost could range from €1.6 bn‑4.5 bn per year in a moderate scenario to up to €225 bn annually in a severe scenario, equivalent to a third of Italy’s export. The most exposed sectors include pharmaceuticals, machinery, metals, transport equipment, agri‑food, fashion, luxury goods and design, with small exporters particularly vulnerable.

Giovanni Da Pozzo, President of Promos Italia, highlighted the need for new routes and contractual safeguards. Meanwhile, SACE’s Export Report 2026 projects Italian export value to grow 2% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.8% in 2028, reaching over €690 bn and targeting €700 bn. The report stresses diversification across markets – with strong growth expected in Asia‑Pacific, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa – and calls for strategic coordination to sustain competitiveness.

Guglielmo Picchi, President of SACE, said the report’s message is “RE‑Agire”: turning complexities into competitiveness, while Michele Pignotti, CEO of SACE, stressed the need for strategic, diversified export in a fragmented global environment.