Italian Inflation Expected to Reach 3% in 2026 Amid Middle East Energy Shock

The OECD Economic Outlook projects Italy’s consumer‑price inflation to rise to 3% by 2026, up from a 1.6% outlook for 2025. The upward shift is attributed mainly to an energy shock caused by the war in Iran and heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, which have lifted international energy prices.

ISTAT data released in April show inflation running at 2.7% year‑on‑year, driven by a 9.6% jump in unregulated energy costs and a 5.3% rise in regulated energy prices, while food prices also accelerated. Household expenses have already risen by more than €200 compared with February, prompting consumer groups to call for measures such as fuel‑tax cuts, temporary VAT reductions on essentials and a larger energy bonus. While core inflation (excluding energy and fresh food) eased to 1.6%, the overall pressure on disposable income remains a concern for policymakers and businesses.