Italian centre‑right polls show Lega decline as Vannacci gains ground

At a press conference during ExpoAid in Rimini, Transport Minister Matteo Salvini said he had no concern about rival Roberto Vannacci and reiterated his goal of pushing the Lega into double‑digit support ahead of the 2027 elections. He stressed that the real test will be the parliamentary vote in the autumn of 2027.

Reuters analysis notes that the Lega’s poll numbers have fallen to around 6 %–7 %, far below the 34 % it achieved in the 2019 European elections, with the decline accelerating after the February launch of the splinter group Futuro Nazionale led by Vannacci. Various polling aggregators (Spin Factor, Supermedia, Human Index) report that Futuro Nazionale is polling between 5.6 % and 6.6 %, while Fratelli d’Italia remains the leading centre‑right party at roughly 27 % of voter intention.

The rise of Vannacci’s movement has prompted internal discussion within Fratelli d’Italia about adjusting its strategy toward the centre‑right coalition. Social‑media monitoring shows the Meloni‑Trump clash dominating online conversation, followed by Vannacci/Futuro Nazionale and the “selfie del campo largo” debate.

Overall, the data indicate a stable but fragmented centre‑right landscape, with the Lega losing ground, Vannacci’s Futuro Nazionale emerging as a potential kingmaker, and the incumbent coalition parties reassessing their positioning ahead of the 2027 vote.