Italy's demographic decline threatens labour market and pension sustainability

In the past decade Italy has lost about 550,000 people aged 15‑34, a drop of half a million under‑35s. The CGIA study warns that by 2029 more than 3 million workers – mostly baby‑boomers – will leave the labour force, putting pressure on small‑business employers, especially in Lombardy, Emilia‑Romagna and Veneto.

The study projects that pension spending could rise from 15.4% of GDP today to a peak of around 17% by 2040 before gradually falling below 14% after 2070. It also notes that future pension benefits may be modest for today’s low‑wage, discontinuous‑career youth, and suggests a voluntary, name‑based pension savings scheme.

Separately, the ABI banking association and the Cisl‑Marche regional report highlight the broader economic risks: a potential 18% drop in GDP by 2050 and over 30% by 2080 without intervention, and the Marche region’s loss of 28,000 residents under 35 in six years, forecasting a loss of more than 100,000 by 2050. Both emphasise the need for coordinated policy and institutional action to mitigate the demographic shock.