Moody’s confirms Italy’s Baa2 rating amid economic resilience

Moody’s has confirmed Italy’s Baa2 credit rating, noting the economy’s resilience to energy price shocks caused by conflicts in the Middle East. The agency maintained a stable outlook, citing a large, diversified, high-income economy and a strong domestic investor base that supports government bond financing. While membership in the EU and the Eurozone are strengths, Moody’s noted that high public debt limits fiscal flexibility.

Moody’s has upwardly revised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Italy to 0.8% following a real GDP growth of 0.9% in the first half of the year. The agency expects the deficit to be 3% of GDP in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027, with the debt-to-GDP ratio stabilizing around 138% during those years.

In related economic developments, Prometeia has also raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Italy to 0.9%, driven by strong household consumption and service spending. However, rising European gas prices remain a risk factor for inflation and household purchasing power. Additionally, data regarding energy efficiency shows that 46% of residential buildings certified in 2025 fall into the lowest energy performance classes (F or G), highlighting the ongoing need for building renovations.