Italy election polls: Meloni wins against Schlein but loses to Conte

An Ipsos-Doxa poll analyzing potential runoff scenarios for upcoming elections indicates that the outcome depends heavily on the specific challenger facing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

In a scenario pitting Meloni against Elly Schlein, the center-right coalition leads with 51.2% of the valid votes compared to 48.8% for the progressive coalition. In this matchup, 89% of Futuro Nazionale voters support Meloni.

However, the results shift if Giuseppe Conte of the Five Star Movement (M5S) runs as the challenger. In a Meloni vs. Conte runoff, the progressive camp rises to 51.0%, surpassing the center-right at 49.0%. The poll highlights high voter loyalty within the M5S, noting that 96% of its electorate would vote for Conte, compared to only 84% who would shift to Schlein.

Additionally, recent Swg polling suggests a slight decline for the Democratic Party (PD), which saw a 0.3% drop in support recently.