Italy may see cooler weather after Ferragosto as models predict end of heatwave

Italian meteorological analysts cite the European Centre for Medium‑Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the US Global Forecast System (GFS) in projecting a prolonged heatwave lasting up to ten days, with extreme temperature anomalies persisting for the next 45‑46 days. The models, however, also indicate a possible shift after the Ferragosto period, suggesting a transition to cooler conditions and above‑average precipitation across Italy and parts of western Europe between 17 – 23 August, with a further likelihood of returning rainstorms from 24 – 30 August.

The forecasts stress low confidence beyond five days, noting that reliability declines sharply after that horizon, but they present a tentative scenario where the current African‑origin anticyclone could weaken, allowing fresh air masses and rain to break the ongoing summer heat.