Italy: Meloni faces rising far-right influence and fiscal deficit

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is facing significant political and economic challenges as her government coalition struggles with declining popularity and fiscal constraints.

According to a Corriere della Sera poll, the governing coalition—comprising Fratelli d'Italia, Forza Italia, and Lega—holds 39.4% of voter intent, trailing the progressive opposition which stands at 44.5%. Meanwhile, the far-right 'National Future' party, led by former General Roberto Vanzetti, has gained momentum, securing 8.8% of the vote. Analysts suggest these shifts could lead to early general elections in the spring.

Economically, the National Institute of Statistics (Istat) reported that Italy's public deficit reached 3.1% of GDP last year. This figure limits the government's ability to implement new tax cuts or social benefits in the 2027 budget and may trigger negotiations with Brussels. Meloni has expressed skepticism regarding the Istat calculations, suggesting potential interference from a 'deep state' aligned with the opposition.