Italy raises 2026 economic growth forecast to 1%

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has raised the economic growth forecast for 2026 to 1%, suggesting the nation's economy could match or potentially exceed the overall Eurozone pace. This updated outlook is more optimistic than the 0.6% target previously set by her government in April and exceeds the 0.9% estimate issued by Italy’s Parliamentary Budget Office.

Meloni cited first-half economic data as the basis for this confidence. Official statistics indicate that Italy’s GDP grew by 0.3% in the first quarter and 0.2% in the second quarter. By the end of June, the carry-over growth rate reached 0.8%, implying that even with zero growth in the latter half of the year, full-year output would still be 0.8% higher than in 2025.

Despite the positive forecast, Meloni acknowledged long-standing structural challenges, including high energy costs and low productivity, which have hindered sustained expansion. Achieving a 1% growth rate would mark the first time in nearly four years that the Italian economy has reached that threshold.