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Super El Niño could cause 451,000 heat-related deaths globally
A study by the Climate Impact Lab, involving researchers from the University of Chicago and UC Berkeley, warns that the current Super El Niño phenomenon could lead to approximately 451,000 additional heat-related deaths globally between June 2026 and February 2027. Researchers estimate that global land temperatures could rise about 1.2°C above normal, resulting in a 44% increase in extremely hot days compared to typical years.
The most severe impacts are projected to occur in the Global South. The Sahel region, including Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad, could face roughly 66,800 additional deaths. Specific country projections include Nigeria (31,400), Indonesia (19,300), Sudan (17,500), and India (15,800). Brazil is also expected to be significantly affected, with an estimated 13,300 additional deaths, primarily in the North and Northeast regions.
Experts suggest that these extreme conditions serve as a preview of future climate patterns. To mitigate these risks, the report recommends implementing heat warning systems, cooling centers, hydration stations, and expanding hospital capacities to protect vulnerable populations.
Entities
Climate Impact Lab · Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche · Copernicus Climate Change Service · Enea · European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts · Fondazione Osservatorio Meteorologico Milano Duomo ETS · Italy · Lampedusa Oceanographic Observatory · Mediterranean Sea · Michael Greenstone · Milan · Milan Duomo Meteorological Observatory
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The central Mediterranean absorbed 30% less CO2 in early 2023 compared to the previous year due to weak winds and marine heatwaves. www.insalutenews.it
- [● 3 SOURCES] Milan experienced 80 tropical nights where temperatures did not drop below 20°C. www.mitomorrow.it · quindicinews.it
- [● 4 SOURCES] Milan recorded its hottest summer since 1897, with an average temperature of 28.3°C. www.mitomorrow.it · quindicinews.it
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Fifty million people are at risk of acute hunger due to climate-driven disruptions.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The summer of 2026 was the hottest since 1950. www.heraldo.it
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The meteorological summer of 2026 in Veneto had an average temperature 2.8°C higher than the 1991-2020 norm. www.heraldo.it
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Ocean temperatures in the Pacific have reached 3.05 degrees, signaling a massive El Niño event.
- [● 4 SOURCES] Milan experienced 80 tropical nights where temperatures did not drop below 20°C, including 66 consecutive nights. www.mitomorrow.it · quindicinews.it
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The global average surface temperature in August reached 16.96 degrees Celsius. www.ilfriuliveneziagiulia.it
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The average ocean surface temperature exceeded 21 degrees Celsius in August. www.ilfriuliveneziagiulia.it
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The global average surface temperature in August was 1.65 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). www.ilfriuliveneziagiulia.it
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The August global temperature was 0.85 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average. www.ilfriuliveneziagiulia.it