Italy faces sharp demographic ageing and shrinking workforce

Italy’s population is ageing rapidly while births continue to fall. The ISTAT 2026 report shows 369,944 births in 2024, a decline of about 10,000 from the previous year, with a projected 355,000 births for 2025 – a 3.9 % drop. Fertility has hit a historic low of 1.14 children per woman and the average age at childbirth rose to 32.7 years.

The same demographic shift is reshaping the labour market. Data from the Observatory of Free Professions reveal that the active‑population replacement index has risen from 71.9 % in 1976 to 156 % in 2026, indicating that retirements now far outpace new entrants. Workers under 34 make up about 24 % of employees but only 16 % of freelancers, while those aged 55‑64 represent over 22 % of employees and up to 28 % of independent professionals. Income peaks are being delayed, and generational income gaps are widening.

In response, EY partner Cristian Losito highlighted at InsurTech Days 2026 the need for a “longevity ecosystem” – a blend of technology, infrastructure and insurance solutions – to meet the growing demand for elder‑care services as family units become smaller and older‑care becomes a central economic sector.