IUCN warns 96% of shallow-water coral reefs face collapse by 2075

A global assessment by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) warns that 96% of the world’s shallow-water coral reef systems are classified as “critically endangered.” The report indicates an extremely high risk of ecosystem collapse by 2075, driven primarily by rising ocean temperatures and human-induced climate change.

The study, which covers 127 tropical and subtropical ecoregions across more than 80 countries, highlights that thermal stress is the most significant constant threat. Iconic systems at risk include the Great Barrier Reef, the Coral Triangle in the western Pacific, the Mesoamerican Reef, and the Red Sea reefs. The assessment utilizes IPCC intermediate climate scenarios projecting a global warming of 2.7 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

Coral collapse leads to the loss of hard corals, which are replaced by algae, rubble, and sponges, destroying habitats for approximately a quarter of all marine species. This decline threatens coastal security, food sources, and economic sectors such as fishing, aquaculture, and tourism. The report also notes that the emergence of “super” El Niño events further exacerbates these risks.