James Si warns of tough winter as Iran conflict deepens

James Si, former NATO deputy assistant secretary for Emerging Security Challenges and now senior adviser at the European Centre for Civil Protection (EPC) and a senior partner at Friends of Europe, said the war scenario in Iran looks bleak and warned that “a difficult winter awaits”. He noted that the U.S. President may again seek to use bases in European countries, a move that would require careful handling by European states.

Si described increasing U.S. strikes on Iranian energy and water‑desalination infrastructure, which could trigger a humanitarian crisis, and highlighted Iran’s threats toward Gulf states. He also mentioned Houthi attacks on shipping in the Gulf of Aden, raising the risk of a second chokepoint for international fuel supplies. The commentator cited diplomatic activity by Pakistan, Qatar and others, and pointed to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s indication that the United States is interested in talks with Tehran. Si concluded that a temporary cease‑fire could allow the United States and Iran to negotiate limited measures on the Strait of Hormuz and shipping routes.