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[INTERNATIONAL] · Italy · 55 sources

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Italy population projected to shrink to 45.8 million by 2080

New demographic projections from Italy's national statistics bureau, ISTAT, indicate a significant population decline. The resident population is expected to fall from 58.9 million in early 2025 to 55 million by 2050, and could drop to 45.8 million by 2080.

This decline is driven by a record-low fertility rate of 1.14 children per woman in 2025, the lowest since the unification of Italy in 1861. While births are expected to remain relatively stable until 2030, they are projected to fall to 335,000 annually by 2050. Conversely, deaths are expected to rise due to an aging population, potentially peaking at 869,000 annually in 2058.

The demographic shift will fundamentally alter Italy's social structure. The proportion of citizens aged 65 and older is projected to increase from 24.7% in 2025 to 34.5% by 2050, while the working-age population (15-64) is expected to shrink from 63.4% to 55.3% in the same period. This imbalance poses substantial challenges to the nation's economic sustainability, pension systems, and social welfare.

Regional impacts will be uneven, with southern Italy expected to face the most severe losses, potentially dropping from 19.7 million residents in 2025 to 16.7 million by 2050.

Entities

Alessandra Minello · European Commission · Giorgia Meloni · Istat · Italy · Japan · Reuters · University of Padua

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