Japan faces dual demographic crisis of regional decline and national birthrate drop

Japan is facing a profound demographic crisis characterized by a declining birthrate and a shrinking national population. This phenomenon is being analyzed through two distinct lenses: regional historical precedents and the perceived failure of national fiscal policies.

In regions like the former coal-mining areas of the Sorachi district in Hokkaido, a “first generation” of population shrinkage occurred. During that era, while specific local areas declined due to the closure of mines, the national economy was still growing, allowing for external investment and infrastructure support. In contrast, Japan is now entering a “second generation” of shrinkage, where the entire nation is contracting simultaneously, leaving no growing external sectors to provide financial or human resources to struggling regions.

On a national level, critics argue that government countermeasures have been ineffective. Despite a significant increase in family-related government spending—rising from approximately 3.6 trillion yen in 2007 to 11 trillion yen in 2024—the number of births has decreased by 30% in that same period. There is a growing argument that cash benefits and subsidies may be counterproductive, as they can inadvertently increase the perceived cost of child-rearing and contribute to an “inflation of marriage and childbirth,” making these milestones feel financially unattainable for the middle class.