Japan rice prices tumble to 5‑kg 3,500 yen amid oversupply, pressing farmers and restaurants

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries reported that the average price of 5 kg of rice fell to ¥3,590 in the week of 15‑21 June, down from the ¥4,400 level seen in January. Prices have now settled in the ¥3,500 range, with some outlets expected to sell new‑season rice for under ¥3,000.

The decline is driven by a surplus from the 2025 harvest, which exceeded expectations, and fierce competition between private traders and agricultural cooperatives that drove up collection prices before inventories swelled. Farmers warn that the rapid price fall threatens incomes, while experts cite the lingering effects of past subsidy‑driven production policies.

CoCo Ichibanya, Japan’s largest curry‑house chain, posted record sales of ¥655 billion for the fiscal year ending February 2026, but net profit slipped 19 % as rice‑price spikes earlier in the year eroded margins. The current oversupply could ease cost pressures, yet the chain faces three challenges: potential consumer demand for lower menu prices, continued high inflation in labor and logistics, and a lag between spot price drops and existing long‑term rice contracts. Industry analysts suggest diversified procurement, menu redesign and overseas expansion as ways to mitigate future rice‑price volatility.