Japan's June core CPI forecast at 1.6% as energy prices rise

A Reuters poll of 16 economists expects Japan’s nationwide core consumer price index – which excludes fresh food – to rise 1.6% year‑on‑year in June, up from 1.4% in May but still below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. The uptick is attributed to higher crude‑oil prices linked to the Iran conflict and a revision of medical‑service fees that lifted energy‑price pressures.

Japan’s wholesale inflation surged 7.1% in June, the fastest annual increase since March 2023, adding further pressure on the BOJ. The data, to be released on July 24, will be a key input for the central bank’s upcoming policy meeting, where officials are expected to consider further rate hikes.

The poll also notes that while a tentative U.S.–Iran truce remains fragile, any escalation could keep energy‑price pressures elevated, influencing inflation dynamics through the summer.