J.P. Morgan cuts Argentina's 2026 growth forecast amid economic decline

J.P. Morgan has significantly lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast for Argentina from 2.7% to 1.5% following a sharp decline in economic activity. The bank warned that the country could face a technical recession, projecting an annualized contraction of approximately 4% for the third quarter.

Data from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) shows that the Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE) fell by 2.9% in July compared to June on a seasonally adjusted basis. This represents the worst monthly performance since the April 2020 lockdowns, excluding major global financial shocks in 2008 and 2018-2019. Key sectors experiencing declines include manufacturing (-4.6%) and wholesale and retail trade (-5.1%), though mining and fishing showed growth.

President Javier Milei has contested these assessments, denying that the country is in a recession and stating that economic indicators are showing record levels of GDP, consumption, and exports. However, market indicators show rising pressure, with the country risk index reaching yearly highs and the official dollar hitting new nominal records.