JP Morgan upgrades outlook for Greek systemic banks

JP Morgan has significantly upgraded its outlook for Greece’s four systemic banks, maintaining an outperformance recommendation while raising target prices. The investment firm suggests the sector has transitioned from a period of balance sheet cleanup to a new phase characterized by growth, profitability, and increased shareholder distributions.

Specific target prices and upside potential through the end of 2028 include: • Eurobank: €6.10 target (approximately 30% upside) • Piraeus Bank: €13.70 target (approximately 28% upside) • Alpha Bank: €5.80 target (approximately 21% upside) • National Bank of Greece: €20.70 target (approximately 18-19% upside)

The upgrade is driven by expectations of higher net interest income and stronger commissions. JP Morgan forecasts annual loan growth of 8% to 10% and an average annual increase in earnings per share of approximately 12% for the 2025-2028 period. The bank anticipates that credit expansion in Greece will remain higher than the rest of Europe for the next three to five years, supported by corporate investments and the Recovery and Resilience Facility.