JPMorgan warns of rising global food prices by 2027

JPMorgan has issued a warning that global food prices could rise significantly by 2027. Projections suggest that food prices may increase by approximately 5 percent in the first half of 2027, compared to a 2.8 percent increase estimated for the first half of 2026.

Several factors are driving this potential crisis, including fertilizer shortages, geopolitical tensions, and climate patterns such as El Niño. The report highlights that rising natural gas prices will increase the cost of urea production, as gas is a primary raw material.

India is expected to be particularly vulnerable due to its heavy reliance on imported fertilizers like urea and ammonia. Geopolitical instability in West Asia, specifically tensions involving Iran, the US, and Israel, threatens supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. If these disruptions continue, the Indian government could face a fertilizer subsidy burden exceeding 3 trillion rupees.